人民币中间价风向标角色减弱 （中英双语）

青岛希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com.cn）整理发布2016-01-12

希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com.cn）2016年1月12日了解到：Renminbi poses communication challenge
Global investors began 2016 with a keen eye on China and the direction of the renminbi. The first two days of trading this year have dramatically demonstrated why the dance around the currency between the markets and China’s central bank matters. 全球投资者在2016年伊始密切关注中国以及人民币走势。今年头两个交易日戏剧化地表明，为何市场与中国央行之间围绕人民币的互动非常重要。

China’s financial markets are rivalling Wall Street in setting the mood for global investors with changes in the renminbi the main transmission mechanism. As a result, global investors’ interpretation of signals from the People’s Bank of China is influencing assets from oil to US share prices. 在影响全球投资者情绪方面，中国金融市场正在赶上华尔街，而人民币汇率的变化成了主要传导机制。其结果是，全球投资者对中国人民银行(PBoC)发出的信号的解读，影响着从石油到美国股价的各类资产。

Since Monday, the offshore rate has weakened at its fastest pace since the shock August devaluation that rocked world markets. The spread between the tightly controlled onshore rate and its offshore cousin on Tuesday also hit a fresh record — suggesting discord between China and international markets over its exchange rate is rising. 自本周一以来，离岸人民币汇率以自去年8月撼动全球市场的贬值以来的最快速度下跌。周二，受到严格控制的在岸汇率和离岸汇率之间的差额也创出新的纪录，似乎表明中国和国际市场围绕人民币汇率走势的分歧在加大。

At issue is the struggle of international investors to gauge the PBoC’s willingness since the August shock to allow markets to set the exchange rate. The key parameter is the daily “fix” or midpoint set at 9.15am in Beijing each day, at which the onshore renminbi is permitted to trade either side by 2 per cent. 问题的症结在于，国际投资者很难判断中国人民银行自去年8月以来在多大程度上愿意允许市场设定汇率。关键参数是央行每天上午9点15分在北京发布的中间价，人民币在岸汇率被允许在中间价上下2%的范围内波动。

Before August the midpoint was used by the central bank to signal where it wanted the currency to trade. Changes during the summer were in part designed to flip this system by decreeing the fix would instead reflect the previous day’s market close — meaning it was no longer to be considered a signal. 在去年8月之前，中间价被中国央行用于暗示它想要的人民币汇率水平。去年夏季的改变在一定程度上是为了反转这个体系，中国央行宣布中间价将反映前一天的市场收盘价，这意味着它不再被视为一种信号。

Mainland traders say its weather vane role has indeed greatly reduced. 中国内地交易员表示，中间价的风向标角色确实已被大幅削弱。

“Now the midpoint is just based on the previous day’s spot close. It’s not really an expression of the PBoC’s thinking,” says the head of forex trading at a midsized Chinese bank in Shanghai. 上海一家中等规模的中资银行的外汇交易主管表示：“现在中间价只是建立在前一天现货收盘价的基础之上。它没有真正表达中国人民银行的思路。”

But international investors are unwilling to abandon what they see as one of few pieces of guidance from the PBoC, which said in August it would set the midpoint mainly in reference to the previous day’s spot close — but also left itself leeway to consider “other” factors. 但国际投资者不愿放弃他们眼里中国人民银行发布的极少数指引之一，后者在去年8月表示，中间价将主要参考前一天现货收盘价，但也为自己留下了余地，称它也将考虑“其他”因素。

“Post-August, the signal is not as clear as it used to be, but I don’t think anyone is prepared to entirely look past the fix,” says Paul Mackel, head of emerging markets foreign exchange research at HSBC. “We’re still looking for some guidance from the PBoC and that 9.15am moment has been ingrained in market thinking for years.” 汇丰银行(HSBC)新兴市场外汇研究部门主管保罗?梅克尔(Paul Mackel)表示：“去年8月之后，信号不像过去那么清晰了，但我认为没有人准备完全忽视中间价。我们仍在关注来自中国人民银行的某种指引，再说市场关注上午9点15分的习惯多年来已变得根深蒂固。”

On Tuesday the onshore fix was set at Rmb6.5169 to the dollar, and the currency ended the Chinese trading day at Rmb6.5198 — fractionally stronger than its Monday close in China. The offshore rate, however, weakened sharply to Rmb6.6435, taking the renminbi’s two-day loss to 1.2 per cent. 周二，人民币兑美元的在岸汇率中间价为6.5169，当天交易结束时是6.5198，略高于周一的收盘价。然而，离岸汇率大幅下跌至6.6435，使得人民币两天跌幅达到1.2%。

The gap is an embarrassment for the central bank, which stated that eliminating the spread between the two rates was a goal of its policy changes last August. 这种差距让中国央行感到尴尬，因为它在去年8月宣布，消除两种汇率的差距是其政策调整的目标。

Different interpretations of the PBoC’s intentions reflect the difficulties facing the central bank and its management of the currency; allowing market forces greater sway, while also preventing a disorderly depreciation, which would encourage greater capital flight. With the midpoint no longer its preferred signal, the PBoC is instead relying on direct market intervention when it wants to influence the rate. 对中国人民银行意图的不同解读反映出中国央行及其汇率管理工作面临的困难：允许市场力量发挥更大作用，同时阻止无序贬值，后者将鼓励资本外逃。鉴于中间价不再是其优选的信号指标，中国人民银行在想要影响汇率时会依赖市场干预。

“It’s a dangerous situation when everyone knows the renminbi will depreciate. The PBoC is just trying to make sure the fall is controllable,” says the forex trader. “They know this is anti-market behaviour. Actually they’d rather not do it, but they have no choice. They can’t allow a fall like what happened to the rouble.” 前述外汇交易员表示：“当所有人都知道人民币将要贬值的时候，局面就很危险。中国人民银行只是试图确保人民币下跌是可控的。他们知道这是反市场的行为，实际上他们宁愿不这么做，但他们别无选择。他们不能允许卢布那样的下跌。”

The limitations of intervention have become clear after foreign exchange reserves fell $213bn in the four months to the end of November last year. Continued dollar selling by the PBoC raised the prospect that China’s forex reserves, which once seemed limitless, could be quickly exhausted. 中国外汇储备在截至去年11月底的4个月里下降2130亿美元，充分暴露了干预的局限性。中国人民银行持续抛售美元引发了中国一度貌似无穷大的外汇储备可能很快耗尽的前景。

Indeed, traders said the PBoC’s dollar selling, which had diminished in recent weeks, surged again yesterday after the renminbi weakened by 0.6 per cent on Monday — its third-biggest one-day decline on record, trailing only two days during the August devaluation. 的确，虽然中国央行最近几周减缓了对美元的抛售，但交易员们表示，在人民币汇率本周一下跌0.6%之后——这是有记录以来的第三大单日跌幅，仅次于去年8月人民币贬值期间的两天——中国人民银行再次大举抛售美元。