中国因素搅动全球资产价格 （中英双语）

青岛希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com.cn）整理发布2016-01-12

希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com.cn）2016年1月12日了解到：
China-related worries test global asset prices
If viewed on a standalone basis, recent developments in China strictly do not warrant the massive global stock market sell-off and financial dislocations that have followed. 如果单独来看的话，中国最近的国内形势不能作为解释全球股市大规模抛售潮及随后的金融市场动荡的全部理由。

Such a narrow assessment, however, ignores the cumulative impact of longer-term distortions that have taken root in the financial system, both inside and outside China. A major adjustment of policies is needed if these distortions are to be resolved in an orderly fashion. Otherwise, market forces could well force a reconciliation that will be a lot more disruptive to the financial system and the global economy. 然而，如此狭隘的论断忽视了中国国内外金融体系在较长期内根深蒂固的扭曲的累积影响。要想以有序方式纠正这些扭曲，就有必要对政策做出重大调整。否则，市场力量很可能强制调和，这将对金融体系和全球经济产生更大的破坏。

China is in the midst of a structural economic transformation that is recasting its growth engines, away from external markets and towards greater reliance on internal demand. With that comes an almost inevitable slowdown in growth, compounding concerns about pockets of credit excess within the economy. 中国正处于改造增长引擎、摆脱外部市场影响并逐步转向更加依赖内需的结构性经济转型期间。这种转变几乎不可避免地伴随着增长放缓，加剧了对中国经济中某些领域信贷泛滥的担忧。

Slower growth places a question mark on the government’s prior efforts to widen stock market ownership within China. Deemed as having society-wide merit, that of giving an increasing number of Chinese citizens an even more direct stake in the success of the transition to a market economy, these efforts inadvertently pushed asset prices too far. This is similar to what occurred in the US when it pursued greater home ownership. 经济增长放缓给中国政府扩大居民持股的首要努力打上问号。这种努力被认为具有广泛的社会价值，让越来越多的中国居民在国内经济成功转向市场经济的过程中获得更为直接的利益，这些努力无形中过度推高了资产价格。这类似于美国在寻求扩大住房所有的时候发生的情况。

The spillover effects on the global economy have been amplified by four factors. 下面4个因素放大了中国增长放缓对全球经济的溢出效应。

First, in an attempt to counter slower growth, the government has guided the currency down in the onshore market; and it has done so in a manner that has also eroded its stabilising influence on the offshore market for the renminbi. 第一，为了应对经济增长放缓，中国政府在在岸市场引导人民币贬值，这么做也削弱了其对人民币离岸市场的稳定作用。

Second, China has been inconsistent in its direct market interventions, including announcing on Thursday a U-turn on the use of circuit breakers that halt trading on its stock market. 第二，中国在直接市场干预方面的做法前后不一，包括本周四一百八十度大转弯，宣布暂停股市熔断机制。

Third, the impact of international spillovers has been accentuated by pockets of market illiquidity reflecting limited appetite among broker-dealers for taking on countercyclical risk. 第三，部分市场流动性不足反映出证券经纪机构对反周期风险的兴趣有限，这加剧了国际溢出效应的影响。

Finally, to make things even more uncertain, geopolitical risk has risen in the Middle East and Asia. 最后，让形势更不稳定的是，中东和亚洲地区的地缘政治风险上升。

All this said, the reactions of global financial markets have gone beyond what would be warranted by a narrow interpretation of what is going on in China. After all, the authorities there have many measures available to soft-land their economy. They still run a controlled system that can avoid a forced deleveraging of the type that occurred in the West in 2008 to 2009; and they have ample financial resources to cover policy mis-steps. 尽管如此，全球金融市场的反应仍超过了对中国局势狭隘解读所能得出的合理水平。毕竟，中国当局可以动用诸多举措让国内经济软着陆。它们仍运营着一个受控的体系，可以避免发生西方国家在2008年至2009年出现的那种被迫去杠杆的局面。它们也拥有充足的金融资源来覆盖政策失误的后果。

But this would be too narrow an analytical perspective. For quite a few years now, asset prices have decoupled from fundamentals as too many countries around the world have relied excessively on experimental monetary policies. And the more central banks were successful in repressing financial volatility through unconventional measures, the greater the amount of risk that investors took on — this in sharp contrast to risk-averse companies where, despite massive cash holdings, investment in new productive activities has been rather muted. 但这种分析角度过于狭隘。多年来，资产价格与基本面脱钩，原因是世界各地太多的国家过度依赖试验性的货币政策。央行越是成功地通过非常规措施抑制金融波动，投资者承担的风险就越大——这与风险厌恶的企业形成鲜明对比，后者尽管手握大量现金，却没怎么投资于新的生产性活动。

With central banks now on divergent policy paths, it has become even more urgent to close the gap between high asset prices and sluggish fundamentals. The best way to do so is through a more comprehensive policy approach that unleashes the productive potential of the global economy, addresses deficient aggregate demand issues, and deals with chronic areas of over-indebtedness. 随着各国央行现在政策路径产生分歧，弥合资产价格高企与基本面疲弱之间的脱节变得更为紧迫。最好的办法是通过更全面的政策手段释放全球经济的生产潜力，解决总需求不足问题，并处理长期的过度负债问题。

This, however, requires political systems to step up to their economic governance responsibilities. In the absence of such a policy pivot, financial market volatility will continue to increase, causing bouts of price overshoots and contagion that could also harm the real economy. 然而，这需要政策体系加快承担它们的经济治理责任。在缺少这样的政策重心的情况下，金融市场波动将继续增加，导致数轮价格剧烈波动并蔓延至其他领域，这也可能破坏实体经济。

While triggered in the short term by China-related concerns, what we are seeing this week on financial markets is, in fact, a broader phenomenon. It speaks to the gradual ending of a world in which central banks have been both able and willing to suppress financial volatility. The longer it takes for other policymaking entities to step in, the higher the risk of even greater financial instability and economic insecurity down the road. 尽管从短期来看是由于对中国的担忧所引发，但我们本周在金融市场看到的实际上是一种更为广泛的现象。它表明一个各国央行既有能力也愿意抑制金融波动的世界的逐渐消亡。其他政策制定机构介入越慢，未来发生金融不稳定和经济不安全的风险就越大。

Mohamed El-Erian is chief economic adviser to Allianz, chair of President Obama’s Global Development Council, and author of the forthcoming book “The Only Game in Town” 本文作者是安联集团(Allianz)首席经济顾问、美国总统巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)的全球发展委员会(Global Development Council)主席，即将出版新书《The Only Game in Town》