欧洲各大金融中心博弈人民币（中英双语）

青岛希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com.cn）整理发布2015-12-07

希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com.cn）2015年12月7日了解到：10月，中国人民银行驻欧洲首席代表包明友在伦敦发表了演讲。在演讲接近高潮的时候，他告诉在场的商界领袖，中国的金融业不仅需要适应变化，还要发挥领导作用。Building up to the climax of a speech in London in October, Bao Mingyou, the People’s Bank of China’s chief representative in Europe, told his audience of business leaders his country’s financial sector needed not only to adapt, but to take the lead.

“The process of renminbi liberalisation will be pushed ahead,” he said, before listing a series of financial reforms already undertaken — on renminbi rates and on the issuing of certificates of deposits and lending rates, among others. “人民币自由化的的进程将继续推进，”他表示。之后他列举了一系列已经着手进行的金融改革，涉及人民币汇率、放开存贷款利率管制等方面。

Then came the climax. “This is the time for you to be more engaged and you will benefit in the long run,” he finished. 随后就是这次演讲的高潮部分。“各位是时候更多地参与进来，从长远看，你将会从中受益，”他总结道。

This was no wake-up call for London. Of all the world’s financial centres, London has positioned itself strongly to capitalise on China’s increasing inclination towards financial reform. Just to ram home the message, the red carpet was well and truly rolled out for President Xi Jinping’s state visit to the UK in October. 对伦敦来说，这样的提醒并无必要。在世界各大金融中心中，伦敦一直坚定地寻求充分利用中国日渐增强的金融改革意识。为了强化这一讯息，英国十分隆重地接待了10月到访的中国国家主席习近平。

On top of the requisite trade and investment deals that accompany such trips, China formally applied to become a member of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which the UK welcomed. It also chose London as the first financial centre outside China to issue its sovereign debt. 除了这类访问通常伴随的贸易和投资协议以外，中国还正式申请加入欧洲复兴开发银行(EBRD)，英国对此表示欢迎。中国还选择伦敦作为首个发行人民币主权债券的海外金融中心。

That move would increase liquidity in London’s renminbi bond market, says City of London policy chairman Mark Boleat, as well as help develop a pricing benchmark and attract other high-rated issuances. 伦敦金融城(City of London)政策与资源委员会主席包墨凯(Mark Boleat)表示，此举将增强伦敦人民币债券市场的流动性，还有助于制定定价基准，吸引其他高信用评级证券在伦敦发行。

London is fast becoming an outpost of the Chinese financial system. Chinese banks have become agents for renminbi clearing payments in London and a host of Chinese financial houses have taken up membership of the London Stock Exchange. The Agricultural Bank of China has issued green bonds in London. 伦敦正迅速成为中国金融体系的前哨。一些中资银行已成为伦敦的人民币清算支付代理机构，一些中国金融机构也成为了伦敦证券交易所(LSE)的会员。中国农业银行(ABC)在伦敦发行了绿色债券。

As UK Treasury official Katharine Braddick said: “The UK financial centre has tremendous influence.” 正如英国财政部(UK Treasury)官员凯瑟琳?布拉迪克(Katharine Braddick)所说的：“英国的金融中心拥有巨大的影响力。”

The competition for Chinese investment in Europe is fierce, says André Loesekrug-Pietri, founder of A Capital, the private equity fund management company. The US had its own red carpet visit from President Xi in September. 私募股权基金管理公司A Capital的创始人龙德望(André Loesekrug-Pietri)表示，在欧洲，争夺中国投资的竞争十分激烈。

European countries need to compete for “the first Rmb bond, the Rmb clearing capital, the listing place for Chinese firms, the best friend of this, the first to officially recognise that, etc,” says Mr Loesekrug-Pietri. 欧洲各国需要争夺“首只人民币债券、人民币清算之都、中国企业的上市地、这方面的最友好关系、那方面的首个官方认可等等，”龙德望说。

But they must co-ordinate policies, markets and wealth to show the Chinese that Europe is a serious partner, he says. 但他表示，欧洲国家必须协调政策、市场和财富，以向中方表明，欧洲是一个严肃的合作伙伴。

China has no particular preference among potential global financial partners. All are relevant, as it seeks to develop the renminbi and build its liquidity. The renminbi may have climbed from 20th most used currency three years ago to fourth, overtaking the yen in the process, according to Swift, the payments services provider. But it is still dwarfed in size by the dollar and the euro. 中国对潜在的全球金融合作伙伴没有特别的偏好。在寻求发展人民币，建立人民币流动性的过程中，所有伙伴都是相关的。根据支付服务提供商——环球银行金融电信协会(SWIFT)的数据，人民币已从3年前第20位最常用货币攀升至第4大最常用货币，超过日元。但美元和欧元的使用量仍然让人民币相形见绌。

London has inbuilt advantages to benefit from China’s thirst for renminbi business — it straddles time-zones from Asia to the Americas and is the centre of the global foreign exchange market. 伦敦拥有获益于中国对人民币业务渴求的固有优势——英国的时区处于亚洲和美洲之间，伦敦还是全球外汇市场的中心。

Hence, China is expected to extend its FX trading hours for the onshore renminbi to 11pm to overlap with European trading times. 因此，预计中国将把在岸人民币市场外汇交易时段延长至晚上11点，以和欧洲的交易时段重叠。

But for China to become the fifth member of the elite Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies and acquire reserve currency status, it has had to persuade global financial markets its reforms are serious and long-lasting. 但是，为成为精英的特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子的第5名成员，获得储备货币的身份，近年中国不得不说服全球金融市场相信，中国的改革是严肃和长期性的。

That persuasion game is far from over. “If they start to slow down on the reform process, people start to lose interest,” says Paul Mackel, who heads emerging markets FX research for HSBC. 这一说服任务还远未完成。“一旦中国开始放缓改革进程，人们就会失去兴趣，”汇丰(HSBC)新兴市场外汇研究部门主管保罗?梅克尔(Paul Mackel)表示。

Reforms will keep coming. China last month launched a cross-border system for clearing renminbi payments to speed up and clarify a laborious process. 改革措施还将继续出台。中国上月启动了人民币跨境支付系统，以加快和理顺耗时耗力的人民币支付清算过程。

SDR admission is largely symbolic, says Mr Mackel. “It’s a coming of age for the currency, an acknowledgment that the Chinese authorities have done a lot of reform. But it’s probably a quality of assurance to stay on the reform path.” 梅克尔表示，人民币加入SDR基本上只具有象征意义。“这标志着人民币走向成熟，是对中国当局

But it is also a question of confidence. The market clearly took fright at the August 11 policy shift from the PBoC which changed the way it calculates the daily RMB rate-setting band, and resulted in a dramatic fall in the currency. 采取大量改革举措的认可。但这很可能也是鼓励中国继续走改革道路的质量保证。”

That has subsequently led the market to give its full attention to the PBoC. Since that marked August depreciation, the renminbi has largely stayed in the same trading band, suggesting the PBoC has been seeking a period of calm while the International Monetary Fund deliberates over China’s SDR application. 但这也是一个信心问题。市场明显因为中国央行8月11日的政策转变而受到惊吓。那天中国央行决定改变人民币汇率中间价报价机制，致使人民币戏剧性走低。

Does a positive SDR outcome for China from the IMF presage a resumption of renminbi depreciation? 这使市场密切关注中国央行。自8月显著贬值后，人民币基本处于同一个交易区间，似乎表明中国央行试图在国际货币基金组织(IMF)考虑中国加入SDR的申请时保持一段平静期。

Many analysts assume the currency will weaken next year. “SDR is not going to stop that,” says Mr Mackel. “A period of calm will be temporary, and if anything we will be going back to the fundamental direction of the exchange rate — and that’s for the currency to weaken against the dollar.” 人民币成功加入SDR是否预示着人民币将再次开始贬值？

If China is to get the world to trade more in the renminbi, it may need the market to become used not just to a declining currency but one that moves around more frequently. 许多分析师认为，人民币明年将走软。“加入SDR也无法阻止这一趋势，”梅克尔说，“一段时间的平静期是暂时的，如果说有什么改变的话，我们将回归汇率的根本走势——也就是人民币相对于美元走软。”

One step at a time. The world’s financial markets may be gearing up for a more engaged renminbi, but is not yet ready for a volatile one. 如果中国要让世界更多地使用人民币进行贸易，中国或许不仅需要市场习惯人民币走软，还需要市场习惯人民币更加频繁的波动。

一步一步来。世界金融市场或许在准备迎接人民币的更大参与，但还没有准备好应对更加动荡的人民币。青岛翻译公司