分析：中国成非洲基建领域最大投资者（中英双语）

青岛希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com.cn）整理发布2015-12-07

希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com.cn）2015年12月7日了解到：一份报告显示，有政府背景的开发融资在非洲基础设施融资中占到80%；在投资者榜单上，中国排在首位。State-run development finance is behind 80 per cent of infrastructure funding in Africa, with China heading the list of investors, according to a report.

Despite steady growth in private sector funding in the past decade, the grip of the public sector could tighten further, with the Export-Import Bank of China having pledged $1tn to Africa in the coming decade, according to analysis by Baker & McKenzie, a law firm, and the Economist Corporate Network. 贝克?麦坚时国际律师事务所(Baker & McKenzie)和经济学人企业组织(Economist Corporate Network)的分析表明，尽管过去十年中私人部门融资在稳步增加，但鉴于中国进出口银行(Export-Import Bank of China)承诺未来十年为非洲提供1万亿美元融资，公共部门的影响力可能会进一步加大。

The Chinese lender’s pledge, if it materialises, would dwarf the investment flows currently provided by all public and private bodies globally. 这家中国贷款机构的1万亿美元融资承诺如果兑现的话，将令目前全球范围内所有公共和私人机构提供的对非投资总额相形见绌。

Chinese institutions are already the largest single source of funds for African infrastructure, accounting for $13.4bn in 2013, the most recent year for which data are available, according to the report, Spanning Africa’s Infrastructure Gap, to be published on Monday. 这份名为《跨越非洲基础设施差距》(Spanning Africa’s Infrastructure Gap)的新报告称，中国机构已经是非洲基础设施领域最大的资金来源，在可查到数据的最近年份2013年提供了134亿美元资金。

But that could yet prove a drop in the ocean. Zhao Changhui, chief country risk analyst at the Export-Import Bank of China, told a conference in 2013 that his country would invest $1tn in the continent in the coming decade. 但是，这还可能只是九牛一毛。2013年，中国进出口银行首席国家风险分析师赵昌会在一次会议上表示，未来十年中国在非洲的投资有可能达到1万亿美元。

Mr Zhao reiterated that commitment when questioned by Herman Warren, Africa chief economist for the Economist Corporate Network and author of the report. 在被经济学人企业组织非洲首席经济学家、上述报告作者赫尔曼?沃伦(Herman Warren)问到时，赵昌会重申了上述说法。

In particular, Mr Zhao said that as a result of China’s “one belt, one road” initiative, east African countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania were starting to receive more attention. Mr Zhao could not be reached by the Financial Times for confirmation.

Calvin Walker, global head of project finance at Baker & McKenzie, said “there is not a lot of visibility on these numbers, but Chinese investment is clearly significantly disproportionately large compared to the money coming in from other countries.” 尤其是，赵昌会表示，由于中国实施“一带一路”战略，埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚等东非国家已开始受到更多关注。英国《金融时报》记者无法联系到赵昌会进行核实。

Overall, the report found that development capital funding for African infrastructure totalled about $328bn between 2009 and 2014, some $54bn a year. 贝克?麦坚时的全球项目融资主管卡尔文?沃克(Calvin Walker)表示，“这些金额的透明度不太高，但与从其他国家流进的资金相比，中国的投资额明显特别高。”

However, commercial lending is estimated to account for only an additional $9bn-$12bn a year, well below the projected $23bn cost of Crossrail, a single transport project in London. 该报告发现，2009年至2014年期间，非洲基础设施领域的开发资本融资总额为3280亿美元，每年约为540亿美元。

In total, the annual flows are markedly below the $90bn a year of infrastructure investment that the World Bank estimated in 2009 was required in sub-Saharan Africa alone. 然而，每年商业贷款估计仅在90亿至110亿美元之间，远远低于伦敦一个交通项目——横贯铁路(Crossrail)项目的预计成本（230亿美元）。

“Put bluntly, Africa cannot fulfil its economic potential without more and better infrastructure, particularly in the power, transport, and water and sanitation sectors,” said Gary Senior, chair of Baker & McKenzie in the region. “This needs funding one way or another for the ‘Africa rising’ growth narrative to come to fruition.” 世界银行(World Bank)在2009年估计，仅撒哈拉以南非洲地区每年就需要900亿美元的基础设施投资。目前，非洲每年的基础设施投资远远低于这个数字。

The World Bank has estimated that Africa’s infrastructure gap reduces productivity by 40 per cent, cutting economic growth by 2 percentage points a year. “坦率讲，要是没有更多更好的基础设施，尤其是电力、交通、水力和卫生领域，非洲就无法实现经济潜力，”贝克?麦坚时非洲区主席加里?西尼尔(Gary Senior)说。“这就需要某种形式的融资，以使‘非洲崛起’之说变成现实。”

Analysis of 2013 suggests that flows from development institutions that year were $44bn, with the private sector contributing an additional $9bn. 世界银行估计，非洲落后的基础设施使生产率减少了40%，每年把经济增长率拉低了2个百分点。

Asia accounted for the lion’s share of the public money, some $15.9bn, with China accounting for $13.4bn of this, well ahead of Japan, the next largest investor, at $1.5bn. Multilateral development banks, the Americas and Europe also invested significant sums, ahead of the Middle East and Africa’s own regional development banks. 对2013年的分析显示，当年来自开发机构的资金为440亿美元，私人部门则另外贡献了90亿美元。

Between 2009 and 2014, two-thirds of investment by development finance institutions was directed to the power and transportation sectors, which received $37.1bn and $24.6bn respectively, ahead of the resources sector, water and sanitation, urban development and communications. 在流入非洲基础设施领域的公共资金中，来自亚洲的资金占了大头，约为159亿美元。其中，中国为134亿美元，远高于第二大投资国日本的15亿美元。多边开发银行、美洲和欧洲的投资额也很高，超过中东以及非洲自己的地区开发银行。

However, Chinese investment has been weighted towards transport facilities such as rail lines, roads, airports and seaports, as well as mineral extraction and production.

South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Morocco, Kenya, Ethiopia and Ghana have received more than 70 per cent of development finance institution funding since 2009. 2009年至2014年期间，开发融资机构对非投资的三分之二流向了电力和交通行业——分别为371亿美元和246亿美元——高于资源行业、水力和卫生、城市开发和通信。

Marc Fèvre, a Baker & McKenzie partner focused on project development and financing, argued there was a “huge amount” of commercial, private sector money earmarked for African infrastructure, but that investors such as private equity groups “can’t find projects that meet their expectations”. 然而，中国侧重投资于铁路、公路、机场和港口等交通设施，以及矿石开采与生产。

“We are increasingly seeing interest from private equity groups but the returns are not commensurate with the risk. There are not enough bankable projects,” added Mr Walker. 自2009年以来，在开发融资机构提供的融资中，南非、埃及、尼日利亚、摩洛哥、肯尼亚、埃塞俄比亚和加纳合计吸纳了70%以上。

Moreover, many private groups are only willing to invest alongside development finance institutions, which are often seen as both more experienced and more likely to be consulted if a project runs into trouble. 贝克?麦坚时主管项目开发与融资的合伙人马克?费夫尔(Marc Fèvre)称，“数额巨大”的商业性的私人部门资金有意投向非洲基金设施领域，但诸如私人股本集团之类的投资者“找不到符合他们预期的项目”。

“There is a view that having a DFI involved helps,” says Mr Walker. “It opens the door to the possibility of government-to-government communication. “我们越来越多地看到私人股本集团表现出兴趣，但回报跟风险不相匹配。能获利的项目并不多，”沃克补充道。

“Even if [investing alongside a DFI] is not formal political risk insurance cover, it provides a level of comfort that the government is not going to pull the plug.” 此外，许多私人集团只愿意与开发融资机构一起投资。人们通常认为后者经验更丰富，如果项目遇到困难，也更有可能向它们咨询情况。

Mr Walker believed private funding would rise once investors have gained confidence and understanding from successfully completing projects alongside DFIs. “有种观点认为，有开发融资机构参与会更好，”沃克说。“这类机构为政府间沟通的可能性打开了大门。”

However, the rise of China could throw a spanner in the works. While most western DFIs seek out private investors, as well as other DFIs, to work alongside them, the Chinese do not favour this approach. “即使（与开发融资机构一起投资）不能为化解政治风险提供正式的保障，这也多少让人感到放心，觉得政府不会撤出。”

The report quotes Mr Zhao as saying: “We do hope that we will have more opportunities to work with other institutions, private and other development agencies. But, in the real sense, it’s a very tough job. 沃克认为，一旦投资者与开发融资机构一起成功完成项目，从中获得经验和信心，私人投资将会增加。

“Each institution will have its own philosophy and conditions for financing; therefore, the negotiations will be very lengthy, documentation very tedious, and the time to really find someone to make a deal workable will be unreasonably long. 然而，中国崛起可能会带来变数。大多数西方开发融资机构寻求私人投资者以及其他同行进行合作，但中方不喜欢这种方式。

“It may sound good, but it’s not good in the real world. It’s always better [for us] to go alone. We have the financial resources for that. We are open to co-operation, but it happens very little.” 前述报告援引了赵昌会的话说：“我们确实希望有更多机会跟其他机构、私人以及其他开发机构合作。但说真的，这是一件很棘手的事。”

“每家机构在提供融资方面都有自己的原则和条件；因此，协商起来旷日持久，文件冗长乏味，真正可以找到某家机构达成可行协议的时间太长了。”

“听起来或许还不错，但实际上并非那样。（对我们而言）单独行动更好。我们有财力这么做。我们对合作持开放态度，但合作非常少。”

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