中国放缓冲击全球经济（中英双语）

青岛希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com.cn）整理发布2015-11-12

希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com.cn）2015年11月12日了解到：历史学家阿诺德?汤因比(Arnold Toynbee)喜欢将美国描述为一个非常小的屋子里的一只友善大狗：每次摇动尾巴的时候都会撞翻椅子。The historian Arnold Toynbee liked to characterise the US as a large, friendly dog in a very small room: every time it wagged its tail, it knocked over a chair.

Today he might have said the same of China (though friendly is not the adjective that springs immediately to mind). Trade, investment and financial linkages between China and the rest of the world have intensified dramatically, so everyone is hurt when chairs in the Chinese economy are knocked around. 汤因比如果现在还在世的话，也可能对中国做出同样的描述，尽管友善这个形容词不会马上跃入脑海。中国与全球其他地区的贸易、投资和金融联系显著加深，因此当中国经济中的“椅子”被撞翻的时候，所有人都会受到伤害。

The stock market plunge was bruising evidence of the extent of economic interdependence. On the face of it, financial linkages between China and the rest of the world are loose. The financial sector is not outward-looking, and the capital account has yet to be fully liberalised. While China is the leading destination for foreign direct investment flows, it accounts for less than 5 per cent of the total stock of inward FDI. 中国股市暴跌残酷揭示出这种经济上相互依存的程度。表面看来，中国与全球其他地区的金融联系是松散的。中国金融行业并未着眼海外，资本账户还没有完全放开。尽管中国是外国直接投资(FDI)的主要目的地，但它在全球FDI流入存量中所占的比例不到5%。

Yet the shock after this summer’s stocks correction and the adjustment in the currency peg was far more severe than these linkages appeared to imply. For most stock markets, the third quarter was the worst since 2008. 然而，在今年夏季中国股市暴跌以及调整人民币盯住美元汇率制度之后，全球市场受到的震动远比上述联系表面上体现出的严重得多。对大多数股市来说，今年第三季度的表现是2008年以来最糟糕的。

China-induced volatility revealed a vulnerability in Japan, which paid a price for being the most liquid Asia market. Fund managers dumped Japan equities to fund redemptions as investors responded to the China scare and related panic in emerging markets by pulling out money. 中国引发的波动揭示出日本的脆弱性，身为亚洲流动性最强的市场，日本为之付出了代价。投资者纷纷赎回资金来应对中国市场暴跌以及新兴市场的恐慌，基金经理们不得不大举抛售日本股票以应对赎回潮。

For emerging markets, trade linkages have been the most toxic factor. The scope for trouble can be seen in the World Bank’s estimates for China demand for commodities. These show China accounting for half of demand for metals such as aluminium, copper, nickel and zinc in 2014 and for most of the rise in demand for these metals since 2000. It was responsible for 12 per cent of crude demand in 2014 and half of coal consumption. The bank estimates that about 80 per cent of the increase in imports of soya beans, coffee and cotton since 2000 is accounted for by China. 对新兴市场来说，这种贸易联系是造成伤害最大的因素。这种麻烦有多大，可以看一看世界银行(World Bank)对中国对大宗商品需求的估计。这些估计表明，中国在2014年占到铝、铜、镍和锌等金属需求的一半，而且自2000年以来这些金属需求的增长大多也归于中国。中国还在2014年占到原油需求的12%，以及煤炭消费量的一半。世行估计，大豆、咖啡以及棉花自2000年以来的进口增长有80%归于中国。

Such damage is not confined to emerging markets. The slowdown in China has damped demand in Japan and Korea because supply chains are integrated across East and Southeast Asia. And China provides an important part of the explanation for the sharp slowdown in global trade. 此类破坏不仅仅局限于新兴市场。中国经济放缓打压了日本和韩国的需求，因为东亚和东南亚的供应链已经一体化。中国是全球贸易急剧放缓的重要因素。

The decline in China’s export volume growth, which reflects an overvalued exchange rate and weak external demand, is hitting imports because of the high import content of China exports. In its latest Economic Outlook, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development reckons that this could account for about half of the estimated slowdown in China import volume growth from 7 per cent in 2014 to probably just under 2 per cent in 2015. This is a big factor in declining import volumes in the non-OECD economies, which substantially explains the weakness of global trade this year. 中国出口额增长减缓，这反映出汇率高估和外部需求疲弱，而由于中国出口商品中的进口部件比例很高，这正在影响进口。经合组织(OECD)在其最新一期《经济展望》(Economic Outlook)中估计，中国进口额增速将会从2014年的7%降至2015年的可能不到2%，其中大约一半的降幅源自于此。这是非经合组织经济体进口额下降的主要因素——它在很大程度上解释了今年全球贸易疲弱的原因。

Trade linkages understate the extent of the advanced economies’ exposure to the China slowdown because of direct sales by foreign affiliates of multinationals, the OECD points out. Sales by US affiliates in China amounted to $364bn in 2013, more than twice the value of bilateral exports to China from the US. Sales of subsidiaries of Japan manufacturers in China were almost double Japanese merchandise exports to China. So weaker demand growth in China hits revenues, profits and share prices of foreign multinationals. 经合组织指出，由于跨国企业外国分支机构的直接销售，若单看贸易，会低估发达经济体受中国经济放缓影响的程度。美国在华分支机构的销售在2013年达到3640亿美元，是美国对华双边贸易出口额的两倍多。日本制造商在华分支机构的销售几乎是日本对华商品出口额的两倍。因此中国需求增长变弱打击了外国跨国企业的收入、利润和股价。

In one sense these negative spillovers are good news. They reflect the rebalancing of the Chinese economy: consumption is becoming a more important source of growth than investment. The import intensity of consumption and service sector activity is less than that of investment. 就某种意义来说，这些负面的溢出效应是好消息。它们反映出中国经济正在进行再平衡：消费正成为比投资更为重要的增长源泉。消费和服务部门活动的进口强度低于投资活动。

That said, the Chinese are responding to the slowdown with fiscal pump-priming equivalent to a quarter of the fiscal expansion introduced in 2009 to counteract the global financial crisis. In the short run, that implies a little relief for emerging markets, some of which are beginning to look oversold. But it is also a step backwards in China’s attempt to escape from a dysfunctional model based on investment and export-led growth that results in a grotesquely inefficient allocation of capital. 话虽如此，中国仍然正在为应对经济放缓而推出财政刺激措施，规模相当于2009年为抵御全球金融危机而出台的财政扩张举措的四分之一。短期而言，这意味着新兴市场可以稍微缓一口气，一些新兴市场资产开始看上去被超卖了。但这也是中国摆脱失灵增长模式努力的倒退——以投资和出口为导向的增长模式导致中国在资本配置方面极其低效。

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