新兴市场初现企稳迹象（中英双语）

青岛希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com.cn）整理发布2015-11-07

希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com.cn）2015年11月7日了解到： 研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)最近使用其专有的“GDP增长追踪器”的数据表明，今年8月新兴市场增长率达到3%，高于7月的2.8%。
Capital Economics, the research firm, used its proprietary “GDP growth tracker” data this week to show that emerging market growth rose to 3 per cent in August, up from 2.8 per cent in July.

The tracker shows a close correlation with subsequent official EM GDP data over time. 传统上，该追踪器与随后陆续发布的新兴市场官方GDP数据有着密切的关联。

“There is no sign in recent months’ data of the collapse in growth that many have been talking about,” said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics in a report.

“Indeed, growth appears to have been fairly stable. If anything, conditions now seem to be improving.” 凯投宏观首席亚洲经济学家马克?威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)在一篇报告中表示：“与许多人谈论的不一样，最近几个月的数据没有显示出增长崩溃的任何迹象。”

The growth tracker data show that the pace of expansion in three key EM regions — emerging Europe, emerging Asia and Latin America — is showing signs of stabilisation. “实际上，增长似乎相当稳定。如果说有什么变化，那就是现在的情况似乎有所改善。”

Mr Williams says this shift derives from some significant changes in the EM firmament. 增长追踪器的数据显示，新兴欧洲、新兴亚洲和拉丁美洲这3个主要新兴市场地区的经济扩张步伐都显示出企稳迹象。

The recession in Russia appears to be moderating, while Latin America seems to have passed a trough and China’s growth has also stabilised, he argues. 威廉姆斯表示，这种转变源于新兴市场宏观环境的一些重大变化。

Emerging Europe steadies 他辩称，俄罗斯经济衰退似乎在趋缓，同时拉美似乎走出了低谷，而中国的增长也在企稳。

Economic Sentiment Indicators for the month of October, released by the European Commission on Thursday, showed an improvement in seven among nine central and eastern European countries covered. 新兴欧洲企稳

Only the Czech Republic and Hungary — where economic sentiment remained robust — showed a slight deterioration in optimism in the month compared with September. 欧盟委员会(European Commission)上周四发布的10月“经济情绪指标”显示，在该指标涵盖的9个中、东欧国家里，有7个国家的经济情绪出现改善。

Romania, Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia all showed an improvement in sentiment, bringing the aggregate level to its highest point since September 2008. 只有捷克和匈牙利这两个之前经济情绪保持乐观的国家的乐观情绪与9月相比稍有减退。

The indicators, which accurately portrayed the 2008-09 crisis and subsequent recovery, are arrived at by surveying representatives of the manufacturing, services, retail and construction industries, as well as consumers. 罗马比亚、波兰、斯洛伐克、保加利亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛和爱沙尼亚全都显示情绪出现改善，整体水平达到2008年9月以来的最高点。

The Capital Economics GDP tracker for emerging Europe showed a contraction of 1.4 per cent in August, improving on the 1.8 per cent fall in both July and June. Much of this improvement derives from a moderation in Russia’s recession, the firm said. 这些指标曾准确描述2008年至2009年的经济危机以及随后的复苏，它们是在对制造业、服务业、零售业和建筑业代表以及消费者进行调查之后得出的。

Others, though, are less sanguine on Russia. 凯投宏观的新兴欧洲GDP追踪器显示，今年8月该地区经济收缩1.4%，较7月和6月1.8%的收缩幅度有所好转。该公司表示，这种改善在很大程度上源于俄罗斯衰退趋缓。

Dmitri Petrov, an analyst at Nomura, cast doubt over the sustainability of a jump in Russian industrial production for September, noting that the figure was swollen by a number of one-off factors — including the delivery of locomotives under a government-funded purchase order. 然而，其他人对俄罗斯没有那么乐观。

Perhaps more telling for Russia’s outlook was a fall in retail sales during the month. This appeared consistent with what Gazprom Bank noted in a research note has been a vicious slump in nominal wage growth to a historic low of 4.5 per cent in October.

Given that inflation is running at 15.5 per cent, Russian households are seeing their real spending power evaporate. 野村证券(Nomura)分析师德米特里?彼得洛夫(Dmitri Petrov)对俄罗斯9月工业产值飙升的可持续性表示怀疑，他指出，该数据得益于众多一次性因素，包括政府采购的一批铁路机车交货。

In addition, Russia’s official full-year GDP growth forecast was revised downward in October to minus 3.9 per cent, lower than the minus 3.3 per cent forecast in September, Gazprom Bank noted. 或许更能说明俄罗斯前景的是，9月零售销售下降。这似乎与俄罗斯天然气工业银行(Gazprom Bank)在一份研究报告中所指出的相符：今年10月名义薪资增长跌至4.5%的历史最低水平。

China divides opinion, but services at least are robust 鉴于通胀率高达15.5%，俄罗斯家庭的实际购买力大幅下降。

China is another economy that divides opinion. Industrial output in September was weak, rising just 5.7 per cent year on year from 6.1 per cent in August as those industries hit by overcapacity continued their painful adjustment. The cement, flat glass, crude steel and coking coal industries all posted a year-on-year decline in output during the month. 此外，俄罗斯天然气工业银行指出，俄罗斯官方的全年GDP增长预测在10月向下修正为-3.9%，逊于9月预测的-3.3%。

Nevertheless, retail sales growth picked up during the month, demonstrating again the dichotomy between the slowing manufacturing and buoyant services sectors. 中国的形势让人意见分歧，但至少服务业强劲

Retail sales growth rose 10.9 per cent year on year in September, up from 10.8 per cent in August. Such buoyancy was also reflected by FT Confidential Research survey data, which showed that 56.7 per cent of respondents increased their spending in September, up from 54.9 per cent in August. 中国是又一个引发意见分歧的经济体。9月工业产值疲弱，同比仅增长5.7%，而8月增长6.1%，原因是那些产能过剩的产业继续进行痛苦的调整。水泥、平板玻璃、粗钢和焦煤行业9月产值全都出现同比下降。

Shen Jiangguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities, forecasts that China’s GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter will rise to above an officially reported 7 per cent, after easing to an official 6.9 per cent in the third quarter. He, along with many other China analysts, regards official growth figures as significantly overstating China’s real levels of GDP growth. 然而，9月零售销售出现起色，再次表明要一分为二地看待中国，一方面是制造业放缓，另一方面是服务业强劲。

Nevertheless, a genuine stabilisation is in prospect, according to Mr Shen. It will be driven by further monetary loosening and increased pressures on banks to boost lending. 9月零售销售同比增长10.9%，而8月是10.8%。英国《金融时报》旗下研究服务部门“投资参考”(FT Confidential Research)的研究数据也反映出此类积极迹象，数据显示，56.7%的受访者在9月增加支出，高于8月的54.9%。

Others disagree. David Hensley, analyst at JPMorgan, thinks Chinese infrastructure spending will gain speed as Beijing’s fiscal stimulus kicks in and this will stabilise GDP growth in the range of 6 to 6.5 per cent when it happens. 瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)首席亚洲经济学家沈建光预计，在第三季度官方GDP数据放缓至6.9%之后，中国第四季度官方GDP增长率将高于7%。和其他许多中国分析师一样，他认为官方增长数据显著高估了中国GDP增长的实际水平。

But so far there is no evidence of this, resulting in a forecast of 6.3 per cent GDP growth for the fourth quarter, Mr Hensley said. 然而，沈建光表示，中国经济增长有望真正企稳。中国政府将进一步出台货币宽松举措，并要求银行加大放贷力度，这将会推动中国经济增长。

Latin America shows few positive signs 其他人对此并不赞同。摩根大通(JPMorgan)分析师大卫?亨斯利(David Hensley)认为，随着中国政府的财政刺激产生效果，中国的基础设施支出将会加速，届时GDP增长将在6%至6.5%的区间企稳。

Although some analysts say that signs of a stabilisation in China should underpin commodity prices and thus benefit Latin American producer-oriented economies such as Brazil, the outlook for the continent’s largest economy remains clouded by domestic issues. 但亨斯利表示，迄今并没有这方面的迹象，这导致第四季度GDP的增长预测为6.3%。

“The economic conditions [in Brazil] remain awful,” wrote Monica Defend, head of global asset allocation research at Pioneer Investments. “The economy is in a deep recession and inflation is still high, notwithstanding the aggressive hawkish stance of the central bank. The perspectives are not rosy.” 拉美没有什么积极迹象

To compound matters, political risk remains high with the possibility that President Dilma Rousseff may be impeached. 尽管一些分析师表示，大宗商品价格理应受到中国经济增长企稳迹象的支撑，从而让巴西等以大宗商品生产为主的拉美经济体受益，但拉美最大经济体的经济前景依然受到国内问题的拖累。

In August, Standard & Poor’s downgraded Brazil’s foreign currency investment grade rating to junk, citing a revision of budget targets and uncertainty over the commitment of the government and Congress to the austerity programme. 锋裕投资(Pioneer Investments)的全球资产配置研究总监莫妮卡?德芬迪(Monica Defend)写道：“（巴西）经济状况依然很糟糕。该国经济深陷衰退，同时尽管巴西央行采取激进鹰派立场，但通胀居高不下。前景并不乐观。”

The outlook for Mexico, by contrast, appears more stable. Jorge O. Mariscal, CIO Emerging Markets at UBS, sees corporate earnings growth continuing at a high single-digit rate, but the peso’s volatility against the US dollar adds uncertainty. Third-quarter earnings, therefore, are set to show a positive trend but this will still not be enough to justify a bullish strategy toward Mexico, Mr Mariscal said. 雪上加霜的是，由于巴西总统迪尔玛?罗塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)有可能遭到弹劾，政治风险依然很高。

今年8月，标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)将巴西外币投资级别下调至“垃圾”级，理由是巴西调整预算目标，以及围绕该国政府和国会对于紧缩计划承诺的不确定性。

相比之下，墨西哥的前景似乎比较稳定。瑞银(UBS)新兴市场首席投资官豪尔赫?马里斯卡尔(Jorge O. Mariscal)预计，企业盈利将保持较高的个位数增长，但比索兑美元的波动增加了不确定性。因此，第三季度盈利将呈现积极趋势，但这将不足以说明应该看好墨西哥。

青岛翻译公司/a>